One theme across this entire blog is self-awareness, understanding why I do what I do, how I think, and how I respond to situations. In that same spirit, I wanted to decode something we often throw around casually: Luck. For years, I used the word loosely without really examining what it meant in my life. But by reflecting on my experiences, I found a pattern that fit into a simple structure: Luck = Effort × Randomness.
Everything I’ve lived through fits into four quadrants of this ER Matrix, and I’ve created a memory tool: “SPED” to help remember these types of Luck.
The ER Matrix and the SPED Acronym
In this framework, we have four types of Luck: Stagnation Luck, Pure Luck, Earned Luck, and Delayed Luck. Or as I like to remember it: SPED. Each quadrant represents a different combination of effort and Randomness.
1. Earned Luck (High Effort × High Randomness)
Years of preparation suddenly amplified by a random moment—this is where the biggest orbit shifts happen. For example, the degree of Randomness can vary: you might be recognized by a manager for an important task, by a VP for a critical project, or by a CEO for a company-wide initiative. Each level of recognition represents a different magnitude of outcome. Effort puts you on the launchpad; Randomness decides how far you travel.
2. Delayed Luck (High Effort × Low Randomness)
This is where patience comes in. You are putting in the effort, but the right random opportunity hasn’t appeared yet. It’s about awareness that whenever that small random spark finally appears, your readiness turns it into momentum.
Think of a Bollywood or Hollywood actor: they may audition tirelessly and work for minor, unrecognizable roles, and while opportunities are rare, when that one break comes, it can lead to immense fame and success. The effort is there but the Randomness is just so rare, transformative event in a million.
3. Pure Luck (Low Effort × High Randomness)
These are those purely random wins or losses, like winning a raffle or a lucky break. They happen by chance and don’t necessarily reflect your effort. They are fun when they occur, irrelevant when they don’t. In my life, I never won even a chocolate. 🙂
4. Stagnation Luck (Low Effort × Low Randomness)
This is the quadrant of waiting without action. People here rely on hope without effort and remain stuck because no randomness ever arrives. It’s not about laziness; it’s about stagnation, and realizing that without effort, there’s no way to invite Randomness.
Movement Between Quadrants
Remember, people move between these quadrants. You might be in Delayed Luck and then shift to Earned Luck with a big break. After a plateau, you might find yourself back in Delayed Luck. Different aspects of your life can also sit in different quadrants at the same time. It’s all part of the dynamic journey.
My Philosophy
In my view, hard work is essential, but the nature of the opportunities in different fields can vary dramatically. As Nassim Taleb suggests, sometimes you’re making many small efforts over time, waiting for that one random outlier event that creates an outsized return. In some fields, like a small grocery business, that random outlier is extremely rare—so while you can work hard, the ceiling is relatively fixed unless you do something radically different.
On the other hand, in fields such as engineering, tech, or finance, the number of potential opportunities is much larger. Anyone in this segment need not wait for a one-in-1000s break.
It is often about positioning yourself so you’re ready when that outlier moment occurs. – Nasseb Talib
Finally, in fields like acting, the outlier events are sporadic, and only a tiny fraction of people ever hit that jackpot. My philosophy is about placing myself where effort and a greater number of random opportunities intersect. That way, I maximize my chances for an outsized return when Randomness works in my favor.
Stay prepared. Stay aware. Let Randomness do whatever it wants.
Because when the right moment appears and it always does at some point. I want to be the person ready to step into the next orbit.
When Randomness arrives, be ready for the next orbit.